Intelligence

For both sides of the hire

Talent markets behave like asset markets. Capital flows, rate cycles and deal activity move demand for people long before it shows up in hiring plans. We track those signals so clients can set talent strategy before conditions materialise, not after.

Inflation versus salaries

Prices have outrun professional pay since June 2020.

CPI alone, professional services pay, professional services BD pay, is down 6.8% since June quarter 2020.

Line chart of cumulative percentage change since June quarter 2020.-20%0%+20%+40%+60%+80%+100%+120%+140%+160%+180%% change since Jun 2020Jun 2020Jun 2021Jun 2022Jun 2023Jun 2024Jun 2025Jun 2026CPI +28.8%Professional pay +20.1%Childcare fees +35%Rent +25.9%Mortgages +125.7%Fuel +67.2%Electricity +29.6%Insurance +52.1%House prices +59.6%Food +25.9%ASX 200 +48.8%Global shares (VGS) +110.4%NASDAQ +160.6%Gold +124.1%Cash rate 0.25% → 4.60%:up 1,740% (18.4×)

CPI alone +28.8% vs professional pay +20.1% since June 2020: pay is behind by 8.7 points.

Cumulative % change since June quarter 2020. Childcare: average hourly fee, $10.20 (Sep 2020) to $13.75 (Mar 2026). House prices national. Markets and gold at quarter-end closes (price return; global shares = VGS on the ASX, AUD); NASDAQ +167.0% at the 30 Sep 2026 close. Gold in AUD (COMEX close at the RBA AUD/USD rate).

Intention to move

How likely BD, marketing and communications professionals are to move roles in the next 12 months.

By level
Intention to move roles in the next 12 months, by group
GroupActively lookingOpen to opportunitiesNot looking
15%moved firm in the past year (all respondents)

Not looking includes passive (would consider a move), unlikely and very unlikely.

A note from Charles Handley

Hiring markets move on confidence. I think we have some.

The machineSpend, inflate, collect, repeat.
Public spending raises demand, demand raises inflation, inflation fills the Treasury and funds the next round, while rates and the interest bill land on households and later budgets. Spend and borrow public demand 28.9% of GDP More demand Central Bank: “greaterthan assessed” Higher inflation CPI 4.0%, target 2 to 3% Aim the grants 73% of $559m toincumbent held Fills the Treasury bracket creep · GST ·debt erosion Central Bank lifts rates 4 hikes in 2026 → 4.60% Bond yields rise 10 year 5.24% Win the seats reelected: run it again You pay the interest +$55b a year Interest bill rises the brake, years later steer itfunds thenext roundnominal wagesand pricesslow, about 6.6year maturityWhere the cost goesand againworks for the governmentlands on householdsand later budgetsreal but slow

Source: author synthesis. Figures: ABS 5206.0; RBA minutes and media release, 29 Sep 2026; ABS CPI Aug 2026; BPI 2026/27; RBA E13; countryeconomy.com. The Central Bank reacts to total demand, public and private. It does not respond to the deficit as such.

Firms commit to headcount when they think they can see the next two years. So here is a positive. We can be fairly confident that inflation stays high into 2028, and so do rates. Short of a Black Swan, that is the picture.

We are AAA rated, yet we now pay more to borrow over ten years than Italy or Greece. That made me do some analysis. The graphic is where I landed and it gives us something to plan around.

Public sector demand sits at 28.9% of GDP. That is elevated. Higher prices lift tax receipts through bracket creep and GST, and quietly shrink the real value of debt. The bill turns up later, in mortgages and in the interest bill, typically for those in the private sector.

This isn’t a forecast of doom. It’s a reason to plan on the basis that money stays expensive for a while. For firms, that means the ones waiting for rate cuts before they hire will wait a long time.

2028 at the earliest. I’d hazard a guess at 2031.

The ones hiring now, on the assumption of higher for longer, get first pick of the talent. Restructuring, refinancing, tax and banking work stays busy in this kind of market, and so do the BD teams behind them.

Better to just get on with it. Markets are what they are, and talent markets are no different. It’s just a shame that people’s homes are involved.

Charles Handley, Partner