Article · Both sectors

Spend, inflate, collect, repeat: why money stays expensive and why that is a reason to hire now

Inflation and rates stay high into 2028 at least. The firms hiring now, on the assumption of higher for longer, get first pick of the talent.

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A pay report open on a desk, a bell curve drawn in brass

Hiring markets move on confidence. I think we have some.

Firms commit to headcount when they think they can see the next two years. So here is a positive. We can be fairly confident that inflation stays high into 2028, and so do rates.

Short of a Black Swan, that is the picture.

We are AAA rated, yet we now pay more to borrow over ten years than Italy or Greece. That made me do some analysis.

The graphic is where I landed and it gives us something to plan around.

The machine: spend, inflate, collect, repeat. A flow diagram of public spending, inflation, tax receipts, rates and who pays the interest
The machine: spend, inflate, collect, repeat. Author synthesis. Figures: ABS 5206.0; RBA minutes and media release, 29 Sep 2026; ABS CPI Aug 2026; BPI 2026/27; RBA E13; countryeconomy.com.

Public sector demand sits at 28.9% of GDP. That is elevated.

Higher prices lift tax receipts through bracket creep and GST, and quietly shrink the real value of debt. The bill turns up later, in mortgages and in the interest bill, typically for those in the private sector.

This isn’t a forecast of doom. It’s a reason to plan on the basis that money stays expensive for a while. For firms, that means the ones waiting for rate cuts before they hire will wait a long time.

2028 at the earliest. I’d hazard a guess at 2031.

The ones hiring now, on the assumption of higher for longer, get first pick of the talent.

Restructuring, refinancing, tax and banking work stays busy in this kind of market, and so do the BD teams behind them.

Better to just get on with it. Markets are what they are, and talent markets are no different.

It’s just a shame that people’s homes are involved.

More on law firm BD and marketing recruitment. More on origination, distribution and investor relations recruitment.

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